The six Fla. metros included in the July report had days-on-the-market averages greater than 30 days, ranging from an average 52.7% of Tampa listings to 72% in Miami.
SEATTLE –– The share of U.S. home listings that stayed on the market for at least 30 days without a contract was up 12.5% year-to-year in July, according to a Redfin study. Nationwide, 61.2% listings were on the market for at least 30 days; a year earlier, it was 54.4%.
According to report economists, it’s the first year-over-year increase in “stale” housing supply – defined as homes on the market for a minimum of 30 days – since the beginning of the pandemic and close to the biggest uptick in Redfin’s records, which go back to 2012. The only time it increased more (13.9%) was in April 2020, when the pandemic ground the housing market nearly to a halt.
In the six Florida metro areas included in the study, days-on-market ranked both higher and lower than the national average. However, one metro, Fort Lauderdale, had quicker sales in July compared to one year earlier:
- Jacksonville: 59.3% on the market 30+ days – a 21.2% year-to-year increase
- Tampa: 52.7% on the market 30+ days – a 18.6% year-to-year increase
- Orlando: 55.6% on the market 30+ days – a 15% year-to-year increase
- West Palm Beach: 65.2% on the market 30+ days – a 10.1% year-to-year increase
- Miami: 72% on the market 30+ days – a 1.8% year-to-year increase
- Fort Lauderdale: 63% on the market 30+ days – down 0.9% year-to-year
The change reflects a housing market that now faces 5%-plus mortgage rates and a shaky economy. In June, mortgage rates rose to 5.8% before dropping slightly during the month of the study – to 5.4% in July. The change has pushed more buyers to act quickly, but it’s also pushed more sellers to list their home before the market cools.
The total number of U.S. homes for sale was up 4% year over year in July, the biggest increase since mid-2019 – but that’s largely due to homes staying on the market longer. The number of new listings coming into the system dropped 6%.
“People want to know whether we’ve officially shifted from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market. While there’s not a clear line separating those two ideas, homes sitting on the market longer is a point in buyers’ favor,” says Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr. “Buyers can take their time making careful decisions about homes without worrying so much about bidding wars, offering over the asking price and waiving contingencies.”
However, it’s a different story for sellers. They’ve “spent the last two years hearing about their neighbors’ homes getting multiple offers the day they go on sale,” says Marr. “Now they need to price lower and get back to the basics of selling a home, like staging and sprucing up painting, to get buyers’ attention.”
The number of listings over 60 days old also increased, up by 6.8% year-to-year (31.4% to 33.5%). It was the first increase since the beginning of the pandemic.
The uptick in time-on-the-market can also be misleading right now since it’s a year-to-year comparison. In July 2021, the market was red hot, and a typical home went under contract in 15 days – close to the fastest on record – and demand pushed prices to surge even as the total number of home sales declined.
The share of housing supply that was stale was stable before the pandemic, with any fluctuations largely due to typical seasonal patterns.
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