Unusual frosts in Brazil seen knocking out sugar output

Sugar output in Brazil, the world’s largest producer and exporter, is ready to stoop – and will undergo subsequent 12 months as effectively – after three frost occasions hit crops within the nation’s center-south area in June and July, market analysts stated on Tuesday.

Brazil has been hit with an unusually harsh winter this 12 months with temperatures dropping to freezing ranges for a number of days, hurting crops from corn to espresso and sugar cane. The frost follows one of many nation’s worst droughts in a long time, which additionally hit the nation’s agricultural business onerous.

Dealer StoneX reduce its projection for Brazil’s center-south (CS) sugar manufacturing to 34.6 million tonnes for the present crop, down from a Could projection of 35.7 million tonnes, and 10% under final season’s document quantity of 38.4 million tonnes.

Asian commodities dealer Wilmar, one of many world’s largest sugar retailers, slashed its estimate for Brazil manufacturing on Tuesday, saying it solely expects round 28 million tonnes of sugar in 2021/22 because of in depth injury to cane fields.

Costs have soared on the anticipated crop loss. Sugar futures in New York have been close to the best in 4 years final week.

Karim Salamon, Wilmar Sugar head of research, stated that the widespread frosts will end in decrease agricultural yields resulting in a cane crush of round 490-500 million tonnes. Brazil’s CS crushed 605 million tonnes final season.

StoneX additionally expects the full cane crush to fall, however not as a lot. It sees it at 541 million tonnes, down from its earlier view of 568 million tonnes.

The dealer stated it might not rule out additional cuts to its projections, because the full extent of damages to crops from the three waves of frosts that hit Brazil are nonetheless being assessed.

StoneX now sees the worldwide 2021/22 sugar provide steadiness swinging to a deficit of 1 million tonnes, from a surplus of 1.7 million tonnes seen in Could.

Wilmar stated that Brazil’s subsequent sugar season would seemingly undergo as effectively.

“Immature cane stalks might be very inclined to frost injury,” Salamon stated. “That is along with the influence of decrease replanting ensuing from the current droughts.”

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