National view
Our three key Main Street Health Metrics continue to show a positive trend compared to January of 2022. Indeed, Main Street Health is stronger today than it was at the start of the year. The rate of (positive) change has, however, leveled off raising questions about the trajectory for the remainder of the year.
Regional differences
The overall national trends in our key metrics, however, obscure differences across regions and states. Significant month-over-month declines were registered in states adversely affected by severe weather. More modest declines were evident in parts of the West, Southwest, and Rocky Mountains. By contrast, New England and the mid-Atlantic regions rebounded from mid-March.
Industry differences
Consistent with results from our March report—as well as macroeconomic and firm-specific earnings reports—hours worked by employees increased in entertainment, food & drink, and hospitality. Estimates for hospitality (+6.8%) and entertainment (+7.4%) showed notable strength as consumers sought social and leisure experiences.
Average (nominal) hourly wages have increased approximately 10% since the beginning of 2021. However, the rate at which wages have increased has leveled off. Wage increases in entertainment and hospitality remain more variable with a bias to the upside.
