CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Monday said the charts suggest that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will see gains later this summer because the index usually rallies in August during election years, no matter which candidate is leading in the polls.
“The charts, as interpreted by Larry Williams, suggest that the Dow almost always rallies in August — what a takeaway — of any given election year … regardless of who’s ahead,” he said, noting that August is usually a poor month for the market. “That’s exactly the kind of pattern that you can make some money with.”
Cramer acknowledged the chaotic landscape of this year’s election cycle: President Joe Biden is under pressure to leave the race after a poor debate performance, while former President Donald Trump was convicted of a felony and is set to be sentenced in September.
He also stressed that both candidates have different convictions when it comes to economic policy, and those differences will affect significant parts of the market.
To explain Williams’ analysis, Cramer examined a chart of the Dow’s performance this year with its average performance during every election year since 1968.
Williams suggested it could be misleading to interpret charts that show the Dow’s average performance solely from years where an incumbent or a challenger won. The data samples from both pools are too small to be conclusive, he said. To Williams, larger aggregate data about the Dow from every election year may be able to paint a more accurate picture of how the market will behave.
“So, in nearly the last sixty years, Williams sees two patterns: First, stocks typically do well in August –which is highly unusual, that’s a dreadful month,” Cramer said. “Second, stocks tend to get hit over the course of October, before bottoming roughly a week or two ahead of the election, at which point they typically go back into rally mode.”
Watch the video for Cramer’s full remarks on the chart analysis.