By Rich McKay
(Reuters) – Florida faces a “broad, sloppy” weather system that could become a tropical storm this weekend, dumping up to a foot (30 cm) of rain and bringing winds of over 70 mph (110 kph), forecasters say, as a likely heavy Atlantic hurricane season revs up.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for extreme southern Florida and stretching as far north as the Fort Myers area, which was crushed by Hurricane Ian in 2022, with the storm expected to hit the peninsular state’s west coast by Saturday night.
Powerful ocean surges are forecast for Bonita Beach northward to Tampa Bay, according to the National Hurricane Center. Those surges could send powerful sea waves further inland than normal, damaging structures and threatening anyone in their path.
Governor Ron DeSantis has put most of the state’s cities and counties under emergency orders ahead of the expected landfall.
“It’s over Cuba right now,” NHC Deputy Director Jamie Rome said in an interview on Friday. “We are anticipating it to turn into a tropical storm over the weekend. Right now it’s a broad, sloppy system but we expect it to become more organized when it’s back over Gulf waters.”
If the storm swells into a tropical storm – with winds between 39 mph and 73 mph (63-117 kph) – it will take the name Debby.
U.S. forecasters expect a large number of Atlantic hurricanes to form in the 2024 season, which began June 1, with four to seven major hurricanes forming out of 25 named storms. That is more than the record-breaking 2005 season that spawned hurricanes Katrina and Rita.
Only one hurricane, Beryl, has formed in the Atlantic so far this year. The earliest Category 5 storm on record, it ravaged the Caribbean and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula before rolling up the Gulf Coast of Texas as a Category 1 storm, with winds up to 95 mph.
Even if the current system does not strengthen into a tropical storm, it will bring as much as a foot of rain to parts of Florida, Rome said.
“People often use wind speed as a proxy for how dangerous a system is,” Rome said. “But this is a classic case to not do that. The rain rate, it comes down so quickly, makes it dangerous.”
He said it is too soon to say exactly when or where the storm might make landfall this weekend.
Tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued for the Florida Keys and the Gulf Coast.
Key West Mayor Teri Johnston said his tiny island community was “well prepared but not worried” about the storm.
“Everyone’s on it, everyone knows what to do. Load up on three to seven days’ of supplies and water, batteries, remove all potential projectiles from the yard,” she said. “We’re ready.”
The storm is expected to follow a similar track as the deadly 2022 Hurricane Ian, which killed at least 103 in Florida and did billions of dollars in damage as it made its way along the Gulf Coast.