Recent consumer survey data on iPhone sales points to a lack of growth for Apple , according to KeyBanc Capital Markets. Analyst Brandon Nispel downgraded the megacap tech name to underweight from sector weight, and his $200 price target reflects more than 13% downside ahead, as of Thursday’s close. Shares fell nearly 1% in the premarket following the analyst’s move. Year to date, the stock has soared nearly 20%. AAPL YTD mountain AAPL, year-to-date Nispel thinks the iPhone SE is “not purely additive” to overall iPhone sales, citing data from the firm’s consumer iPhone survey for September. The survey showed that 59% of respondents are interested in upgrading to the iPhone 16. Additionally, among those who are likely or extremely likely to upgrade to the iPhone 16, 61% are interested in the iPhone SE. “We think this shows the iPhone SE is not incremental, and could possibly be cannibalistic to iPhone 16 sales,” the analyst wrote in a Thursday note. “From our view, if iPhone SE is successful, iPhone Units could rise but [average sales prices] could fall, contrary to consensus.” On top of that, Nispel anticipates that upgrade rates in the U.S. aren’t likely to move higher heading into next year. In fact, they could be down mid-single digits in the fourth quarter and low-single digits in the first half of 2025. Meanwhile, he thinks an inflection across the company’s product categories is “unrealistic” moving forward. “Consensus expects Apple ’25 revenue growth to accelerate higher and to grow across all product categories and geographies,” he continued. “While it is certainly possible Apple can achieve this feat, it is not probable, in our view.” The analyst also pointed to an expensive valuation. The name currently has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of about 34.4, according to FactSet. Nispel’s downgrade makes him the lone analyst covering the stock with an underperform-equivalent rating. LSEG data shows that 35 of 48 analysts rate Apple as a buy or strong buy, while another 12 have a hold rating.