Nvidia (NVDA) is the third largest constituent of the S & P 500, and it has an exceptionally strong influence on investor sentiment. The company is at the heart of the artificial intelligence “trade” which has been a bullish theme for the market over the past two years. After a booming start to the year, Nvidia is going to finish the third-quarter in the red for the period. With the stock having stalled within its steep long-term uptrend, investors are reasonably wondering if NVDA is signaling an end to the AI trade. Looking at NVDA from a long-term technical perspective, there are indeed some indications that the consolidation phase that began in July will keep hold. For one, the DeMARK Indicators logged a counter-trend signal in July denoted by the red arrow on the monthly bar chart. The monthly stochastic oscillator has since fallen below 80%, a long-term overbought indication, and the monthly MACD histogram has downticked. Taken together, these signals suggest that NVDA could remain range-bound for another several months. NVDA’s consolidation phase has taken the shape of a triangle pattern, evident on the daily bar chart. The boundaries of the triangle converge to capture lower highs and higher lows, reflecting a fickle period for the stock that often comes with indecisiveness. It is possible that investors are not convinced the AI trade warrants another big upmove from NVDA, which was up about 150% in the first half of the year. As we close out the month of September, the stock is down about 3% for the quarter. The boundaries of the triangle on NVDA’s chart bear watching in the near term, with resistance at its upper boundary near $126, and support from its lower boundary near $107. There is a new downturn in the daily stochastics that supports a pullback from resistance, preserving the triangle formation. If support is broken, we would expect risk to increase to the downside, as is often the case with triangle breakdowns, noting secondary support is near $97. This warrants risk management below $107. With NVDA’s big footprint in the S & P 500, it is an important stock to watch, even without a position. The sentiment would likely improve for NVDA, and therein the S & P 500, if it manages to lift out of its triangle formation despite indications to the contrary. We would always be respectful of breakouts (and breakdowns), and a triangle breakout would support a retest of NVDA’s all-time high near $141, possibly staving off the end of the AI trade. —Katie Stockton with Will Tamplin Access research from Fairlead Strategies for free here . DISCLOSURES: (None) All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer. Fairlead Strategies Disclaimer: This communication has been prepared by Fairlead Strategies LLC (“Fairlead Strategies”) for informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes and not intended to be, nor construed as, financial, legal, tax or investment advice. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, reflecting the author’s current expectations, and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on broad-based indices, market conditions, different types of securities, and cryptocurrencies, using the discipline of technical analysis, which evaluates the demand and supply based on market pricing. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This document is intended for CNBC Pro subscribers only and is not for distribution to the general public. Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Fairlead Strategies undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Fairlead Strategies, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Fairlead Strategies or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Fairlead Strategies or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Any investments made are made under the same terms as nonaffiliated investors and do not constitute a controlling interest. No liability is accepted by Fairlead Strategies, its officers, employees, affiliates, or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein. Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this information must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein. The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules, or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed absent the written consent of Fairlead Strategies.