A new report from CISAC, the global umbrella group for authors’ societies, has a sobering prediction: 24% of music creators’ revenue could be taken by generative AI by 2028.
The news is almost as bad for creators in the audiovisual industry (TV, film, video, etc.). By 2028, they face a loss of 21% of the income they would have made if generative AI didn’t exist.
That will mean a cumulative loss of EUR €22 billion (USD $23.1 billion) in revenue for music and audiovisual creators over five years (2023 through 2028), the report concluded. For music creators alone, there will be a cumulative loss of €10 billion ($10.5 billion) between 2023 and 2028, with annual losses of €4 billion ($4.2 billion) by that year.
And that’s just the revenue loss for creators; the report didn’t assess the impact on record companies and music publishers.
CISAC hired business consulting and services firm PMP Strategy to carry out a “qualitative and quantitative” analysis of the impact of generative AI in the coming years, focusing on three key questions:
What will be the market size of AI-generated outputs in 5 years (2028)?
What will be the associated loss of revenue for creators by 2028?
What will be the revenues of Generative AI tools/services providers by 2028?
Within the music industry, the study expects that Gen-AI outputs (i.e., partial and complete musical works created by AI) will be worth a cumulative €40 billion ($42 billion) by 2028, and by that year, they will be worth €16 billion ($16.8 billion) annually.
Gen-AI services in music (i.e., tools that help in the music creation process) will be worth a cumulative €8 billion ($8.4 billion) by 2028, with an annual value of €4 billion ($4.2 billion) by then.
CISAC, Economic impact of Generative AI in Music and Audiovisual industries
The study offered predictions of the “cannibalization” rates in different parts of the music business, that is, the percentage of revenues lost, compared to a scenario where AI doesn’t exist.
It predicts that 30% of music creators’ digital revenues will be taken by AI, while 22% of radio, TV, live, and background music revenues will be lost, and 21% of CD and video revenue will be lost.
Generative AI will experience “exponential” growth in the coming years “thanks to the use of copyrighted works for the training of their models,” said Hélène Moin, Manager at PMP strategy.
CISAC, Economic impact of Generative AI in Music and Audiovisual industries
The study predicted two trends will drive this: AI-generated music on streaming platforms and B2B music libraries, meaning, for example, music used in background situations in restaurants and cafes.
AI-generated music could account for 20% of streaming services’ revenues, Moin said. Meanwhile, the report predicted that an incredible 60% of music in the B2B library will be AI-generated by 2028, with businesses seeking to reduce their music licensing costs as AI-generated music becomes more widely available.
The report predicts AI-generated music is likely to become a significant part of music on streaming platforms as “music listeners become active curators, generating and sharing Gen AI tracks.”
Streaming platforms themselves could create AI-generated tracks, mostly in mood music and passive playlists, which would be “pushed to users in personalized playlists,” the report predicted. Digital music distributors could also play a role in bringing AI-generated music to streaming platforms.
(That prospect may explain why certain voices within the music industry are putting increasing pressure on streaming platforms to eliminate music that was created by AI trained on copyrighted materials without authorization.)
“We want decision-makers to understand the urgent need to protect human creators and to protect the interests of society and culture and creativity.”
Gadi Oron, CISAC
The study focused on revenues and didn’t evaluate the impact on jobs. It also didn’t estimate what the AI market would look like if AI developers started paying for the use of copyrighted works in training their AI.
“We want decision-makers to understand the urgent need to protect human creators and to protect the interests of society and culture and creativity,” said CISAC Director General Gadi Oron during a press conference to launch the report on Tuesday (December 3).
“Many governments around the world, many international agencies like the UN are looking now into AI and are shaping their policies and their approaches, and we wanted to supply them with the evidence about the impact of AI on our sector.”
Oron noted that not a single AI developer has signed a licensing agreement with any of the 225 collective management organizations (CMOs), performance rights organizations (PROs), or other collection societies that are members of CISAC worldwide.
“And our societies are approaching hundreds of AI companies with a request to negotiate a license [recognizing] that they are using works that belong to the creators… It’s very difficult,” Oron said.
When it comes to AI, things appear to be just as difficult, if not more so, in the audiovisual industry as in music.
Generative AI will be used to create “complete” audiovisual works, such as user-generated content on social media. AI will increasingly be used for lower-budget TV and streaming video productions, particularly things such as children’s cartoons and commercials, the study predicted.
By 2028, audiovisual content translators and adaptors will see 56% of their revenues “cannibalized” by AI, while screenwriters will lose 20% of revenues and directors 15%.
AI-generated complete audiovisual projects will be worth €48 billion ($50.5 billion) by 2028, the study predicted. Altogether, generative AI in the music and audiovisual industries will grow from €3 billion to €64 billion in 2028, “mostly by cannibalizing the value of traditional and human-made works,” Moin said.
“We need to maintain clear boundaries between AI assistance and human authorship.”
Ángeles González-Sinde Reig, CISAC
Filmmakers are “really concerned because… there’s a risk of deterioration of our working conditions and devaluation of our creative work,” said CISAC Vice-President Ángeles González-Sinde Reig, a director and scriptwriter, and former Minister of Culture in the government of Spain.
“That’s what we are really against right now. We need to maintain clear boundaries between AI assistance and human authorship,” she added, noting that filmmakers are concerned about budget reductions due to AI, leading to lower compensation and less work in film as writers’ teams shrink.
All the same, CISAC’s leadership stresses they aren’t against the development of AI per se, but primarily against the use of human creators’ work without permission and remuneration.
“AI can be and is a wonderful tool, and is already being used in all kinds of exciting ways… But this progress must never be at the expense of creators’ rights… and ensuring fair remuneration.”
Björn Ulvaeus, CISAC
“There is, of course, no way we can or should stand against AI. We’re not Luddites,” said Björn Ulvaeus, President of CISAC, best known as a member of ABBA.
“AI can be and is a wonderful tool, and is already being used in all kinds of exciting ways. I’m using it myself, a few of those AI models, and it surely can enhance human creativity.
“But this progress must never be at the expense of creators’ rights… and ensuring fair remuneration.”
Compensation for artists “has to be non-negotiable,” Ulvaeus added. “And this is not just an ethical position, it’s economic good sense, because the concept of copyright has had, and has still, an immense impact on culture and economy.”Music Business Worldwide
