Alicia Nicholls
Happy New Year to all readers! As is customary at this time of the year, we trade policy analysts like to reflect on the trade year that passed and the year ahead. Global trade trends are important for us to follow in the Caribbean given our countries’ high dependence on cross-border trade for much of what we consume. In this article, I reflect on the trade year that passed, discussing some of the major trends globally and in the Caribbean region and looking forward to 2024.
Trade Year in Review
Slowing global trade growth but services trade resilient
In its just released Global Economic Prospects 2024 report, the World Bank described global trade growth in 2023 as “the slowest outside global recessions in the past 50 years”. That is in sync with the predictions of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in its Global Trade Outlook Update (October 2023) and United Nations Conference for Trade and Development (UNCTAD) in the December release of its Global Trade Update. In its report, UNCTAD had predicted a 5% decline in global trade in goods by nearly US$2 trillion in 2023, including an underperformance in developing countries’ exports and a sharp decrease in South-South trade. Major factors cited by UNCTAD for this decline included reduced demand in developed countries, underperformance in East Asian countries and volatility in commodities’ prices. On the bright side, services trade growth remained positive and resilient in 2023, which UNCTAD estimates to have grown by $500 billion, a 7% increase over 2022’s levels.
Rising protectionism and geopolitical tensions
The US-China ‘trade war’ in semi-conductors has continued. Moreover, the 30th WTO Trade Monitoring Report on G20 trade measures issued in December showed that over the review period, G20 economies introduced more trade-restrictive than trade-facilitating measures on goods. However, the value of traded merchandise covered by trade facilitating measures remained greater than that covered by trade restrictive measures. The Russia-Ukraine war has had an impact on the volatility of commodities prices with food security implications. However, according to a WTO blog article by its chief economist Ralph Ossa published in February 2023, the Russia-Ukraine war’s impact on trade has been less than initially feared.
On-going global supply chain disruptions
Global supply chains, which still have not fully recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic disruptions and have been impacted by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have been further disrupted by maritime traffic hiccups in two of the world’s busiest trade routes: the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal. First, historically low water levels in the Panama Canal due to the worst El Niño event in recent history have reduced the number of ships which could transit through the canal daily, which caused backlogs. Second, shipping carriers have started to avoid the Red Sea, which provides access to the Suez Canal, due to Houthi attacks on shipping vessels. Delays or cancellations from ships having to divert to longer routes increase transit times and fuel costs for the carriers. Indeed, Vincent Le Clerc, CEO of global shipping giant Maersk, reportedly stated in a Financial Times interview that this “could potentially have quite significant consequences on global growth”. Increased shipping costs could lead to higher prices ultimately for consumers and delays could mean a longer wait for many of our favourite items on the shelves.
IFD agreement concluded
In the trade policy world, WTO Members participating in the Joint Statement Initiative on Investment Facilitation for Development (IFD) structured discussions announced their conclusion of an agreement text. These negotiations, in which over 110 WTO members are participating, aims to facilitate investment for the purposes of development. Whether that agreement will be adopted as a multilateral agreement or as a plurilateral agreement remains to be decided and is expected to be an agenda item at MC 13.
Successor to Cotonou Agreement finally signed
The successor agreement to the Cotonou Agreement, the Samoa Partnership was finally signed by some countries, although not without controversy. This is not a trade agreement but is an overarching agreement which sets the legal framework for cooperation between the European Union (EU) and the countries of the Organization of African Caribbean and Pacific States (OACPS) for the next twenty years. As readers may already know, trade between CARIFORUM countries and the EU is covered under the CARIFORUM-EU Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA). Provisional application of the Samoa Partnership Agreement began on January 1, 2024.
Regional issues
CARICOM Member States are reportedly working towards full free movement of persons by the end of 2024. CARICOM countries also continued their push for deeper African economic engagement and the 2nd Africa-Caribbean Trade and Investment Forum (ACTIF) was held in Guyana.
Looking ahead for 2024
Economic uncertainty
The buzzword for 2024 is ‘uncertainty’, which has been the prevailing sentiment since 2020. We are still no doubt in a ‘polycrisis’ moment as major international organisations show in their forecasts for 2024. In its previously mentioned report, the World Bank has predicted a further slowing in global growth this year to just 2.4%, “amid the lagged and ongoing effects of tight monetary policy, restrictive financial conditions, and feeble global trade and investment”. It called this the slowest half decade of GDP growth in 30 years. The World Bank noted as downside risks to its outlook the escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict and the attendant disruptions to commodity markets, persistent inflation, slower growth and deflation in China, trade fragmentation, elevated sovereign debt levels and climate-related disasters. While trade is expected to pick up in 2024, the World Bank warned that this will be “only half the average in the decade before the pandemic”, and UNCTAD described its outlook for 2024 as “pessimistic”.
WTO’s 13th Ministerial Conference
As usual, there is a lot on this year’s trade calendar for us trade nerds to look forward to. All trade policy analysts’ eyes will be on Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates which will host the WTO’s upcoming Thirteenth Ministerial Conference (MC 13) from February 26-29. The WTO is also likely to welcome its two newest members, Comoros and Timor Leste, both least developed countries (LDCs). As the WTO’s Director General Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala eloquently stated in the press release welcoming Timor Leste’s finalization of its accession package, “[w]elcoming two members at MC13 will send a strong message to the international community on the relevance and attractiveness of this organization”.
Mega-election year and implications for countries’ trade policies
Dubbed a ‘mega-election’ year in the media, 2024 will see “more than 2 billion voters in 50 countries go to the polls” in 2024, according to the Center for American Progress. The electoral outcomes in these elections could set the tone for global economic and trade policy. For example, whoever eventually occupies 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue will shape the US’ trade policy for the next four years, including its approach to hemispheric economic cooperation and whether it supports the WTO-headed rules-based multilateral trading system.
Climate crisis and trade nexus
In January this year, scientists from the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) confirmed that 2023 was by far the warmest year on record since record keeping began in 1850. This is something which we in the Caribbean certainly felt during August-November when daily temperatures were unbearably hot. Of course, with a worsening climate crisis, issues of resilience and sustainability are increasingly important in trade conversations. There is greater emphasis now not just on the impact of climate change on trade and vice versa, but how trade policy could support countries’ climate mitigation and adaptation efforts. Indeed, the WTO’s Public Forum 2023 with its theme of “It is time for action” focused on green trade. Moreover, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s 28th Conference of the Parties (UNFCCC COP 28) held its first ‘Trade Day’, the first time that an entire day has been devoted to trade at a COP summit. COP 29 will take place in November 11-22 in Azerbaijan.
Meetings within the region
The Caribbean region will play host to at least two important international trade and development-related meetings over the next twelve months. First, from May 21-24, UNCTAD and the Government of Barbados will host the first Global Supply Chain Forum in Barbados. Second, Antigua & Barbuda will host the 4th International Conference on Small Island Developing States from May 27-30. The West Indies and the USA will co-host the International Cricket Council’s Men’s T-20 World Cup 2024 which promises to bring a influx of tourists. It is an opportunity for the Caribbean region to showcase not just its signature hospitality, but its goods and non-tourism services to the world.
Nearshoring and friendshoring trends
The global supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic exposed the vulnerabilities of long supply chains, leading to an acceleration of reshoring and nearshoring over the past few years. Friendshoring – companies setting up in or sourcing more from countries which are political and economic allies of their home government – has also gained momentum due to geopolitical tensions such as the US-China trade war. Mexico has been a major beneficiary of these trends, eclipsing China to become the US’ largest trading partner in 2023. Several countries in the Caribbean region, particularly Jamaica, have sought to capitalise on these trends, leveraging their geographical location, infrastructure and talent pool as key selling points for US companies seeking to shorten their supply chains by sourcing regionally or to set up operations closer to home.
Intra-regional travel and trade
The year started with news that the Governments of Barbados, Guyana and Trinidad & Tobago have agreed to establish an intra-regional ferry service. This is a welcomed development as the twin issues of poor intra-regional connectivity and the high costs of intra-regional travel have long plagued intra-regional tourism and trade, undermining the spirit of regional integration as envisioned by the CARICOM project.
Final thoughts
2023 was a mixed bag and 2024 holds much uncertainty due to the multiple crises being faced. However, there are some bright spots as I mentioned. It will be up to our trade officials and the private sector – the people who actually trade – to continue to explore how we can turn some of these lemons into lemonade, that is, by turning challenges into opportunities for regional trade and development. With this, I wish all readers a happy new year. As usual, I look forward to following these and other trade developments with you.
Alicia Nicholls, B.Sc., M.Sc., LL.B. is an international trade specialist and founder of the Caribbean Trade Law and Development Blog.