Markets experienced choppy trading in the past week. Bitcoin, for one, surged from $111K on August 21st to over $117K on August 23rd, driven by the Jackson Hole bounce, before declining to $111.36K as of press time.
A CryptoQuant metric now suggests that investors are increasingly holding rather than selling, which could potentially create conditions favorable for sustained price appreciation.
Supply Tightens
The 30-day moving average of Bitcoin exchange inflows has fallen to its lowest level since May 2023. CryptoQuant explained that historically, lower inflows indicate reduced selling pressure as investors increasingly choose to hold rather than liquidate their Bitcoin, suggesting a tightening in available supply.
On all exchanges combined, the 30-day moving average of inflows has sharply declined even as BTC’s price has recovered modestly, which hints at a constrained supply environment supporting strength. US-based and institutional investors are holding back from selling, as evidenced by a significant drop in inflows on Coinbase.
Binance is also seeing the same pattern emerge, as historically low inflows indicate broader market restraint across global trading platforms. With fewer inflows on multiple exchanges, conditions look supportive for a price increase. Overall, these developments suggest that Bitcoin is entering a period of supply scarcity, which may limit selling opportunities and strengthen mid-term bullish momentum.
This reduced selling pressure could also set the stage for what could be the last leg of Bitcoin’s current bull market.
Grand Finale in Q4
According to crypto analyst Cryptobirb, Bitcoin may be approaching the final stretch of its historic bull run. The world’s largest cryptocurrency hit a new all-time high above $124,000 earlier this month but has since shown signs of fragility. Cryptobirb’s analysis estimated the cycle is now 93% complete, and a potential peak will likely transpire between late October and mid-November 2025.
The projection is based on historical bull run durations, halving cycles, and seasonal trends, all of which point to a possible climax within the next 60 days. Previous bull cycles peaked 366 to 548 days after a halving event, and with the most recent halving in April 2024, the calculated window falls between October 19 and November 20.
Technical indicators also remain supportive, as Bitcoin trades above key moving averages, while on-chain data shows no signs of miner capitulation. However, Cryptobirb warned that past cycles were followed by year-long bear markets with steep corrections of up to 66%. For now, the analyst believes Bitcoin may be heading for its “grand finale” in Q4 2025.
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