KEY
TAKEAWAYS
- The Energy Select Sector ETF (XLE) is showing bullish momentum.
- Occidental Petroleum may be poised for a comeback with a 15% to 30% upside potential.
- Baker Hughes could break out of a bullish formation, which could lead to a 15-20% rally.
With oil prices surging and geopolitical unrest stirring in the Middle East, it’s no surprise that energy stocks are drawing renewed attention. And, quite frankly, this week didn’t have many market-moving earnings. So this week, we skate to where the puck is, or, in this case, where traders’ eyes will be focused—the Energy sector.
In the past, we have witnessed this sector spike due to conflicts, and changes can come quickly. The following setups appear to favor continued and quick momentum to the upside.
Energy: A Sector on the Move
Let’s begin with the big picture: the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE). This ETF offers a broad view of the energy landscape. Yes, 40% of this ETF consists of just two stocks — Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) and Chevron Corp. (CVX). So these two will drive the bus when it comes to price action. However, when looking at the entire sector, we see some good risk/reward setups worth monitoring.
From early 2024, XLE has been trading in a rather wide neutral range. In April, though, the ETF broke down and fell out of that range. That was due in part to cheaper oil prices and a reaction to Liberation Day tariffs. This ended up being a classic bear trap, as price held its 200-week moving average (red circle above) and moved back into its range.
The adage, “from false moves come fast moves in the opposite direction,” is well in play here, and given the fundamental backdrop of oil spiking due to conflict, the push higher should continue.
From a risk/reward set-up, the ETF could climb towards the top end of its range and likely break out higher. The risk is at the bottom of the neutral range — support at $82.50 with a first stop upside target of $95. Given Friday’s close, it’s not too much of a risk/reward difference, but momentum indicators suggest the upside is achievable, possibly quickly.
The weekly Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is flashing a strong buy signal, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is breaking a downtrend going back to its August 2024 peak. It has all the makings of a run to resistance and potential breakout, with conservative upside targets of $108 given the range from which the ETF is breaking out.
Occidental Petroleum (OXY): A Buffett Favorite Reawakens
If you’ve followed Warren Buffett’s investments, you’ll recognize Occidental Petroleum (OXY). The stock has been beaten down for quite some time, but, last week, it awoke from its slumber.
OXY shares spiked on Friday, which puts it at a key inflection point. This price action caught our eye, since we are focusing on some good setups from a risk/reward perspective. There could be more room for the stock to run.
OXY enters the week at its weekly downtrend, going back to its 2024 peak at $69.56. Technically, there is major resistance ahead, but it seems poised to attack those levels and has a lot to reverse, which can give investors a nice percentage gain in the meantime.
If shares can eclipse this recent downtrend, then expect a quick run to its 200-week moving average at the $52/$53 level. This level acted as a major consolidation point for years; the once mighty support area could act as resistance and must be watched closely. However, a date with this level looks quite promising and represents a 15% gain from Friday’s close.
If momentum continues and OXY breaks through that level, it’s smooth sailing for another 15+% upside toward the $60 area. OXY could continue to its 2022–2023 consolidation area and do so quickly.
Baker Hughes (BKR): Is It Ready to Wake Up?
Lastly, we turn to Baker Hughes (BKR), an oilfield services and technology company that has been a major laggard since its February peak of $48.85. Technically, it enters the week at a major inflection point.
BKR has formed an ascending triangle, which is nearing its breaking point. That point happens to be at its longer-term downtrend and its 200-day moving average, which makes for an interesting setup.
Downside risk could see shares fall back to their 50-day moving average and the rising short-term average that’s within this tradable formation. If BKR breaks below that level, all bets for this near-term rally are off.
The upside risk favors the bulls. If BKR were to break out, this would confirm a new uptrend, with upside targets 15–20% higher than Friday’s close.
Final Thoughts
The setups we’re seeing in the Energy sector offer a favorable balance between risk and reward. Be mindful of the downside risks and place your stops in the event the position goes against you. Remember, energy markets can shift quickly, especially when geopolitical tensions are involved.
Jay Woods is the Chief Global Strategist for Freedom Capital Markets. Prior to joining Freedom, he was the Chief Market Strategist at DriveWealth Institutional. He also served as an Executive Floor Governor at the NYSE, the highest elected position at the Exchange held by only six NYSE members. Jay spent over 25 years as a Designated Market Maker on the NYSE floor.
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