Retail crypto suffered most since January 2025, while ETFs and DATs masked true losses for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, according to Hougan.
Bitwise Asset Management’s Chief Investment Officer, Matt Hougan, has stated that the cryptocurrency market has been in a full-blown “crypto winter” since January 2025.
The exec said that signs suggest the downturn may be closer to ending than beginning.
Positive News Isn’t Driving Prices
In a recent post titled “The Depths of Crypto Winter,” Hougan explained that, despite ongoing positive developments in adoption, regulation, and institutional involvement, the market is in a severe bear market.
Hougan noted that Bitcoin has fallen almost 39% from its October 2025 all-time high, while Ethereum is down 53%, and many other digital assets are performing even worse. He said this should not be interpreted as a short-term correction or a minor dip, but rather as a deep, drawn-out bear market similar to previous crypto winters, including those in 2018 and 2022. According to him, factors such as excessive leverage and widespread profit-taking by long-term holders contributed to the current downturn.
Despite developments such as a new Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh, who is supportive of Bitcoin, increasing institutional hiring in crypto, and growing adoption by traditional financial firms, investor sentiment remains deeply wary. Hougan said that “Good news doesn’t matter in the depths of winter,” and added that these severe market conditions typically end not with enthusiasm but through exhaustion and sentiment normalization.
The Bitwise CIO also said that institutional flows played a crucial role in masking the true extent of the 2025 downturn. He cited data from the Bitwise 10 Large Cap Crypto Index, which showed that assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP experienced smaller declines, between 10% and 20%, largely due to support from ETFs and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs).
Other assets, including Solana, Litecoin, and Chainlink, experienced typical bear-market declines of 37% to 46%, while Cardano, Avalanche, Sui, and Polkadot saw losses ranging from 62% to 75%. Hougan explained that institutional access and investment through ETFs and DATs provided a buffer for some assets, while retail-focused tokens bore the brunt of the market downturn.
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For instance, ETFs and DATs purchased over 744,000 Bitcoin during the period, representing roughly $75 billion in support. Without that institutional buying, he estimated Bitcoin could have fallen by around 60% since January 2025. As such, several factors could mark the end of the current crypto winter, according to Hougan, who also said,
“I think we’re going to come roaring back sooner rather than later. Heck, it’s been winter since January 2025. Spring is surely coming soon.”
BTC’s Global Standing Weakens
The depth of the current downturn is also reflected in Bitcoin’s standing among global assets. As reported by CryptoPotato, Bitcoin has dropped out of the top ten assets by market capitalization and now ranks 13th globally, according to CompaniesMarketCap data from February 2.
Its market cap has declined to roughly $1.56 trillion, down from about $2.35 trillion back in July 2025, when it ranked sixth after rallying past $119,000.
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