– Carney leads Liberals to victory—opposition leaders lose their seats.
– US JOLTS data and Consumer Confidence put the focus on recession risks.
– US dollar opens higher compared to close.
USDCAD: open 1.3847, overnight range 1.3808-1.3872, close 1.3829, WTI 61.20, Gold 3310.44
The Canadian dollar remains trapped in its well-defined range as traders remain fixated on Trump’s tariffs and the Fed’s interest rate outlook. Everything else is secondary
Mark Carney secured a fourth consecutive win for the Liberal party, while Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh failed to win re-election.
WTI oil moved defensively in a 60.92-62.08 range, pressured by ongoing fears of increased global supply and softening demand.
Trump travels to Michigan today to assure voters that his administration is following a plan, one that includes reducing tariffs on foreign auto parts.
Asian equity indexes closed mixed. Australia’s ASX 200 rose 0.92% while Japanese markets were closed. European bourses are also mixed. Germany’s DAX is up 0.69% while France’s CAC 40 is down 0.15%. S&P 500 futures are off 0.17%, and the US 10-year Treasury yield holds at 4.23%.
EURUSD traded in a 1.1374-1.1423 range and is near the bottom of that band as recent gains faded. Sentiment weakened after the April EU Economic Sentiment Index fell to 93.6 from 95 and Industrial Confidence declined to -11.2 from -10.7. Traders view the softness as fallout from Trump’s tariff policies.
GBPUSD traded in a 1.3394-1.3444 range and is retreating from recent highs, despite a slight improvement in the BRC Shop Price Index to -0.1% from -0.4%. UK grocery prices rose 3.8% rise over the four weeks ending April 20.
USDJPY firmed in a 142.01-142.75 range and sits at the top of that band as it rebounds from yesterday’s decline tied to risk aversion. Liquidity was limited due to a market holiday in Japan.
AUDUSD bounced about in a 0.6398-0.6450 range and is treading water after last week’s rally, which had been fueled by hopes of better US-China trade dialogue. Beijing’s continued insistence that no talks are happening casts doubt on that view. Traders are watching for Australian inflation data tomorrow, which could open the door for an RBA rate cut.
US economic data takes the spotlight today with the release of JOLTS job openings, consumer confidence, and Case-Shiller Home Price index followed by GDP and the PCE Price Index tomorrow.
