By Beatriz Marie D. Cruz, Senior Reporter
THE PHILIPPINE information technology-business process management (IT-BPM) industry slashed its revenue and employment targets for 2028, citing the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and intensifying global competition.
In its revised roadmap, the Information Technology and Business Process Association of the Philippines (IBPAP) projected that under a downside scenario, the IT-BPM industry could post $43.3 billion in revenues and 1.85 million in AI-enabled workers by 2028.
Under a best-case scenario, the industry is expected to generate $50.5 billion in revenues and boost its headcount to 2.14 million by 2028.
These recalibrated targets are much lower than the IBPAP’s initial projection of $59 billion in revenues and 2.5 million in full-time employees by 2028 under its previous roadmap.
IBPAP President and Chief Executive Officer Jack Madrid said the revised projections have factored in disruptions caused by rapid adoption of AI, changes in buyer behavior, and heightened competition in the global IT-BPM industry.
“We reviewed some of the strategic initiatives we need to embark on to ensure that our industry continues to grow and to address any changes in the initiatives needed given all the events that have happened in the past several years. It’s not just technology and agentic AI but also addressing some of the uncertainties caused by geopolitics and our own domestic opportunities and challenges,” he said at a briefing on Tuesday.
Mr. Madrid noted that the industry roadmap, which was first started in 2022, was “refreshed” since a lot of conditions have changed.
Mr. Madrid noted that global buyers are taking longer before deciding to invest in offshore operations, citing the rise of other IT-BPM hubs in South Africa, Egypt, Poland, Vietnam, Colombia, and Costa Rica.
“We are number two in the global IT-BPM [industry,]” he said, noting that India remains the top BPO player. “The challenge before us is whether we can move fast enough to capture this next wave of opportunities.”
For the downside scenario in 2028, Mr. Madrid said the IBPAP factored in policy-related issues that could discourage investors, depth of talent, quality of infrastructure, and challenges on the ease of doing business.
This year, the industry’s revenues are projected to reach $42.3 billion from $40 billion in 2025. The total headcount is expected to rise to 1.96 million full-time employees from 1.9 million last year.
For 2027, the IBPAP expects the industry to grow to $45.3 billion in revenues and 1.99 million full-time employees.
“Success will depend on how quickly we invest in talent, embrace AI responsibly, and deepen collaboration between industry, government, and academe,” Mr. Madrid said.
IBPAP said developing an AI-enabled IT-BPM workforce will require stronger AI literacy, deeper domain expertise, and greater emphasis on human skills such as judgment, critical thinking, empathy, and leadership.
Mr. Madrid also emphasized the need to position the Philippines as a hub for global capability centers (GCC). At present, the country hosts about 200 GCCs.
“In terms of GCCs, I think the growth sectors come from banking, financial services, and healthcare,” he said.
On AI, Mr. Madrid said the IT-BPM industry has yet to see its widespread impact.
“I think AI is a real development, but I think we have not really seen it scale yet,” he said. “AI has affected some jobs… but for entry-level jobs that some of the AI trials have affected, those employees were able to be redeployed.”
Meanwhile, IBPAP Chief Operating Officer Celeste B. Ilagan said there is a need for policies to improve the ease of doing business and address insider cybercrime in the country.
“What we see would be a challenge is that the existing investors in the country, who can probably expand more but are hampered by some policy and regulatory challenges, are now having second thoughts in terms of the expansion they have earlier planned for the Philippines,” she told the same briefing.
“There is always a question from client headquarters about the growing difficulty of dealing with our local government units. That’s really among the major issues that are raised to us by our members,” Ms. Ilagan said.
