By Katherine K. Chan, Reporter
THE ONGOING Middle East war may have continued to take a toll on migrant Filipinos, as the money they sent home in May slumped to its lowest level in a year, preliminary Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) data showed.
Cash remittances from overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) rose by 2% year on year to $2.713 billion in May. This is the lowest level of cash remittances since May 2025, when remittances stood at $2.658 billion.
The 2% annual growth was the same as in April, which was the slowest in nearly four years or since the 1.8% in May 2022.
“Cash remittances increased year on year in May 2026, reflecting sustained inflows from overseas Filipinos,” the central bank said in a statement on Wednesday.
However, the latest monthly tally slipped by 0.18% from $2.718 billion in cash remittances logged in April.
Analysts said this signals a possible slowdown in remittance growth, as headwinds from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East imperil OFWs’ employment.
“The May remittance data suggest that growth remains positive but may be losing some momentum,” Union Bank of the Philippines Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion said in a Viber message.
Jonathan L. Ravelas, a senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., attributed the softer remittance growth in May to elevated living costs in host countries, slower global economic activity, and OFWs adjusting their remittances to a weaker peso.
“With the peso relatively weaker against the dollar compared with a year ago, many OFWs can send fewer dollars while still delivering the same, or even higher, peso value to their families,” he also said via Viber. “In short, the purchasing power of every dollar remitted has improved, reducing the need to send larger dollar amounts.”
In May, the peso averaged P61.441 against the greenback, as it plunged back-to-back to a new historic low of P61.75 on May 18 and 19.
BSP data showed Filipinos based in the US remained the top source of cash remittances during the month, with Singapore and Saudi Arabia trailing behind.
Land-based workers sent the bulk of cash remittances in May, which edged up by 2.1% annually to $2.17 billion, while sea-based workers sent home 1.7% more than last year with $540 million.
Meanwhile, personal remittances, which include both cash coursed through banks and informal channels as well as in-kind remittances, climbed by 2.1% to $3.033 billion in May from $2.971 billion a year ago.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, personal remittances inched up by 0.1% month on month to $3.34 billion.
FIVE-MONTH REMITTANCES
In the five months to May, migrant Filipinos sent home a total of $14.11 billion, up 2.5% from $13.766 billion a year ago.
This was the highest five-month remittances tally ever, but the growth reflects the weakest pace since the COVID-19 pandemic, when remittances as of May contracted by 6.4%.
“This highlights the sustained role of (overseas Filipinos) in supporting household income, spending, and overall domestic demand,” the central bank said.
Mr. Ravelas also noted that the all-time-high five-month remittances level points to OFWs’ resilience and continued willingness to support their families in the Philippines.
“That suggests Filipino workers abroad continue to support their families despite global uncertainties, elevated inflation, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East,” he said.
Inflation has been above the central bank’s 3% target since March, or the first full month of the US-Israel war on Iran. In the first half, inflation averaged 4.8%.
Based on BSP data, remittance flows from the Middle East, which accounts for about 20% of total inflows from all host countries, amounted to $447.73 million in May, falling by 8.9% from $491.569 million in April.
Still, cash remittances from Middle East-based OFWs jumped by 3.6% year on year to $2.494 billion as of May from $2.407 billion.
As of end-May, over 10,000 OFWs have been repatriated since the Middle East war erupted on Feb. 28.
Inflows from the United States accounted for 39.4% of the total cash remittances as of May.
This was followed by Singapore (7.4%), Saudi Arabia (6.4%), Japan (5.1%), the United Kingdom (4.6%), the United Arab Emirates (4.3%), Canada (3.3%), Qatar (2.9%), Taiwan (2.8%), and South Korea (2.7%).
As of May, money sent home by land-based workers reached $11.22 billion, increasing by 2.5% from $10.94 billion a year earlier.
On the other hand, remittances from sea-based OFWs grew by 2.3% to $2.89 billion during the five-month period from $2.82 billion in the prior year.
Meanwhile, personal remittances were up by 2.6% year on year to $15.735 billion from $15.343 billion previously.
According to Mr. Asuncion, the latest remittances data might still not reflect the full impact of the United States and Israel’s war against Iran, with the recent re-escalation posing renewed risks.
“More importantly, the renewed risk of a US-Iran escalation raises the possibility that the impact on OFW employment and deployment in the Middle East could become more visible in the months ahead,” he said.
“While remittances remain resilient for now, we believe downside risks have increased and may not yet be fully reflected in the latest data,” he added.
Mr. Ravelas said he sees remittance growth softening amid heightened global volatility, although he noted that remittances will likely remain a significant economic growth driver.
“Unless we see a major disruption in overseas labor markets, remittance inflows should continue to support consumer spending, help stabilize the peso, and provide an important buffer against external economic shocks,” he said.
“The message from the latest data is clear: remittances are no longer growing as rapidly as before, but they remain remarkably resilient and dependable.”
The BSP expects cash remittances to climb 2.7% to $36.6 billion this year, slower than the 3.3% to $35.6 billion in 2025.
